ICE raids cost 668,000 jobs, hit US workers

ICE raids cost 668,000 jobs. That is not a projection. That is not a worst-case scenario. That is the actual toll measured across American cities between January and September 2025. The enforcement surge was supposed to protect American workers and open up opportunities. The numbers tell a very different story.

The Promise Versus the Paycheck

More than 105,000 people were deported between January 1 and June 11 of this year. ICE street arrests jumped by a factor of 11 during the first year of the second Trump administration. Permanent residents and U.S. Citizens got swept up, arrested, and detained for weeks. The stated goal was clear. Remove undocumented workers. Free up jobs. Put Americans back to work.

That is not what happened.

Employment fell 0.73 percent on average across the quarter of cities hit hardest by ICE activity. In cities where researchers could track employment rates at least six months before the enforcement spike, the drop was 1.48 percent compared to cities that saw no surge. The job losses grew over time. They did not shrink. They compounded.

30 Jobs Vanish for Every Arrest

Here is the number that should stop you cold. For every single person ICE arrested, roughly 30 jobs disappeared from the local economy. ICE made about 52,000 arrests across 86 cities in the first half of 2025. The math is brutal and it is real. ICE raids cost 668,000 jobs across the economy, hitting U.S.-born and foreign-born workers alike.

That ratio is staggering. Arrest one person. Lose 30 jobs. The connection is not accidental. It is mechanical.

The Cities That Felt It First

Laredo, Texas, went from a monthly average of 6 ICE arrests to 803 after operations ramped up. Knoxville, Tennessee, Houston, and San Diego landed in the top tier of cities by enforcement intensity. In all of them, employment trajectories nosedived the moment ICE surged.

Marcela Escobari, vice president and director of the Global Economy and Development program, put it plainly.

The employment trajectories diverge exactly when an ICE surge hits a city. If it had been tariffs, or AI, or the war, or all of those things affecting all cities, we would not have seen such a sharp divergence between surge and non-surge cities at exactly the moment enforcement surged.

That divergence is the smoking gun. The job losses are not explained by trade policy, automation, or broader economic headwinds. They line up precisely with ICE activity. City by city. Month by month.

Construction, Hospitality, and the Ripple Effect

Construction, hospitality, and food services absorbed the hardest blows. Those industries depend on large immigrant workforces. But the damage did not stop at the job site or the kitchen. When construction workers vanish, project managers, electricians, and building inspectors lose their livelihoods too.

Of the 668,000 jobs lost, between 51,000 and 297,000 were held by U.S.-born workers. ICE raids cost 668,000 jobs total, and American citizens were squarely in the blast radius. Escobari explained the mechanism without sugarcoating it.

Many businesses just can't easily replace the missing workers. Recruiting and training new employees can take time, and so many businesses start scaling back, or even shut down, creating a ripple effect that costs even more jobs.

Researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder quantified another piece of the puzzle. For every undocumented male worker arrested, about six males left the workplace entirely. Some were detained. Some fled. Some simply disappeared from the labor force. The hole in the payroll spread fast.

Fear as an Economic Weapon

ICE operations were not quiet affairs. Worksite raids, home arrests, and the detention of American citizens and legal residents made headlines week after week. The visibility of the crackdown created what researchers call fear-driven demand suppression. People stopped going out. They spent less money. They stayed home.

That fear hit industries with no direct connection to immigrant labor.

When Consumers Stop Consuming

Arts and entertainment lost jobs. Why? Fewer people leaving their houses. Fewer ticket sales. Fewer dinners out. Cell phone and credit card data confirmed the pattern. Foot traffic dropped. Consumer spending contracted. ICE raids cost 668,000 jobs, and a meaningful slice of those losses came from everyday Americans pulling back on everyday spending.

Escobari connected the dots.

Given the widespread fear that these surges engendered, they caused many people who didn't have any contact with ICE to stop going out, to spend less money, and this suppressed demand for goods and services, which also cost jobs.

The chilling effect rippled through local economies regardless of immigration status. You did not need to know anyone arrested. You just needed to see the news.

What Happens Next for Your Wallet

The employment data covered through September 2025. Escobari and her co-author Ian Seyal, a senior research analyst, expect the numbers have only worsened in the months since. And they are watching for another consequence that hits consumers directly.

Prices.

There's a good chance that we will see prices going up…prices of goods and services, and also home prices, as construction gets delayed.

Fewer construction workers means fewer homes built. Delayed projects. Tighter supply. Higher prices. The same dynamic applies across hospitality and food services. When businesses cannot staff up, they cut hours, reduce service, or close. And what remains gets more expensive.

The Real Cost, in Plain Terms

ICE raids cost 668,000 jobs. That number is not about politics. It is about payrolls, storefronts, construction timelines, and household budgets. The policy was sold as a jobs program for Americans. It delivered the opposite. U.S.-born workers lost employment. Local economies contracted. Fear did what fear always does. It made people pull back.

The enforcement surge hit 86 cities. The job losses hit everyone in them.

• 30 jobs lost for every single ICE arrest
• 668,000 total jobs erased across the U.S. Economy
• 51,000 to 297,000 of those jobs belonged to U.S.-born workers
• Construction, hospitality, and food services bore the worst damage
• Fear-driven spending drops hurt industries from arts to retail
• Home prices and consumer goods costs are expected to rise

You do not need to know someone who was arrested to feel the consequences. You just need to live in one of the cities where enforcement surged, or buy goods from a supply chain that runs through them, or pay rent in a market where construction just stalled. ICE raids cost 668,000 jobs, and the bill is still coming due.